I am not a good writer. I know that. This blog is really lame as far as blogs go. I understand this. But it’s okay. I had been toying with the idea for a blog for a while, but never really thought I had anything worth saying. And I don’t have the time, skills, or interest to devote to making a good blog. But still I have a blog. This blog. Why?
The thing that finally drove me into blogging were the censure votes against Pete Stark and MoveOn.org last year. I found (and still do) these censures to be ridiculous and inexplicable. They were instances of intentionally shooting yourself in the foot. I still don’t understand why they were done. It’s a puzzle to me. And that, in the end, is why I have this blog. Through fits and starts between work and family and every other distraction in the world I keep coming back to this one question.
I experimented with the idea of tracing the development of American politics through the rise of the Southern Strategy. So much of the kabuki of American politics is run through this prism. It’s definitely a big part of the answer. The Southern Strategy is the great answer of contemporary American culture and any answer to any political question will have to address its impact.
It is in this context that I have been thinking of Iran lately. There are many reasons why the Bush administration invaded Iraq. The only that I feel carries the most weight was an attempt to shift the grand strategic coalition. This is the Cheney neo-con/paleo-con vision realized.
Since World War II (with reinforcements and addendums along the way) the US has relied on proxies to retain its dominance of the region. Saudi Arabia managed the oil, Israel managed the military might, and all other regional powers were managed. Any regional powers that could not be managed were set in confrontation amongst each other. Much of the structure of this aspect of American hegemony was set into its determinative form under Nixon. (yet another reason why I keep returning to the influence he had.)
This arrangement was followed through the end of the cold war. American power peaked during the Clinton presidency. Russia’s power was at an ebb, and the world had entered into a unique period of American hegemony. The Bush/Cheney administration entered this period determined to solidify these gains and cement American dominance over the world. They would do this by realigning the Grand Strategic Coalition that was initially established by FDR.
The goal in attacking Iraq was to get in, take over, establish a strong man that the Americans could control, and then get out. The neo-cons had no doubts in American imperial power. They had seen the ways to dominate and control Washington DC. They were sure that if they could control the pinnacle of power in the world fairly easily then they could control the rest of the world easily.
Shock and Awe was not just a branding device for the war in Iraq. They really believed in it. It was as close to a religion as they had. It was what had got them to control the greatest power in the world. For the tactics of Shock and Awe is the late 20th early 21st century tactical application of the Southern Strategy. And there is great evidence that the tactics of Shock and Awe were the means by which the Republican party was taken over from within by the Neo-conservatives in the 70s and 80s. In short, this was their bread and butter.
“If a man makes a certain amouint of money by certain means he will go on making more money by the same means and so forth. Human activities are drearily predictable. It should be obvious that what you call ‘reality’ is a function of these precisely predictable because prerecorded human activities.”
William S. Burroughs “The Beginning is Also the End
They were sure that it would work. They would take over Iraq, secure its oil for American oil companies, and then walk away. Iran was to be the next step. It too would get the treatment once the business was set up in Iraq. This project would ensure American dominance of the world throughout the completion of the era of oil dominance.
To spell things out, prior to the Bush/Cheney administration, America had Saudi Arabia in its oil column. Iraq and Iran were set against each other, but their oil was underutilized and out of effective American control. Russia and China were watching and slowly building their power. The Neo-con goal was to pull Iraq into the orbit of American hegemony in a role similar to Saudi Arabia, with Israel as the local police force keeping the region in line. Then they would turn their greedy eyes to Iran and give them the same treatment as Iraq.
Securing Iraq and Iran on the American side of the ledger would give the US veto power over the world in regards to energy. It was a play for economic monopolistic power. And that is always what power is about in the end. The marbles in this game are and have always been about the economic organization of contol.
“Hiroshima. 1945. August 6th. 16 minutes past 8 am. Who really gave that order? Answer: Control. The ugly American. The instrument of Contol. Question: If Control’s control is absolute why does control need to control? Answer: Control needs time. Question: Is Control controlled by its need to control? Answer: Yes. Why does Control need humans, as you call them? Wait. Wait. Time. A landing field. Death needs time like a junky needs junk. And what does Death need time for? The answer is so simple. Death needs time for what it kills to grow in, for Ah Pook’s sake.”
William S. Burroughs, “Ah Pook the Destroyer”
Russia and China would have to bow before our might. Controlling the oil would give us a permanent economic advantage over any and every rival. Truly the dream was for the permanent Pax Americana. Combined with the rejiggering of American polical reality, it would be the Pax Neo-Conia. Power and riches for friends and their corporate enablers. What could go wrong?
In Iraq everything went wrong. The military performed its part admirably. Iraq was conquered. After that everything was mismanaged. From the start of looting it became clear that the neo-cons skills at browbeating in American politics would not translate to governing. The neo-cons can’t actually run anything. They are terrible at managing. The nuclear option is a great way to break stuff (like the Democrats, the MSM, or another country), but not at all effective in getting things to work.
And that was the problem with their attempt at Grand Strategy. Their toolkit was empty. All they had was a hammer. Which they are now attempting to use against Iran. Fast forward 5 years into their mess and you see the failure more completely.
First, and most important, is the fact that they never got control over the oil. Since the day they took office oil has quadrupled in prices. They never were able to open the spigots. This is the first and most fundamental blunder. The exurbanization that is enabled by low oil prices is the key to the contemporary Republican coalition. The self-identified “libertarian” wing dependent on the defense and construction industries is in the process of reevaluating their allegiances. This can be seen most clearly in the Mountain West, traditional bastions of Republican support that are most definitely in play during the 2008 cycle.
High oil prices has also fueled the reemergence of Russia on the world stage. And they are making the most of their position. Europe now has extensive dependencies on Russian oil and natural gas. They are aligning themselves with Iran to get their own major oil sources locked up. Russia’s goal seems to be to lock Europe and China into dependence on Russian aligned energy.
China is another player that has risen due to Bush/Cheney incompetence. The inability to either lock down oil production in Iraq or hand the country off to a local strongman has made the Americans borrow on a scale not previously seen. China has profited from an accelerating process of labor arbitrage that has fed China’s ability to grow its economy. The cycle is that the Americans buy cheap Chinese manufactured goods using borrowed money (see personal/governmental debt figures) which the Chinese lend to our government so it can fight the war in Iraq while enacting tax cuts.
China has built itself up as a lending and manufacturing powerhouse. This is the position that the United States found itself in a century ago. That position is the ultimate position of economic power, because it opens all sorts of policy options that are not open to buyers and borrowers.
China is working to escape from the noose that Russia is preparing by also cultivating Iran, along with other energy suppliers in Africa and South America. They are also very tied up economically with the United States and are working to quietly position themselves for a weakened US.
Iran too has gained quite a bit from the invasion of Iraq. First and foremost, the Americans have removed the main competing power in the area and replaced it with what will eventually be a vassal state. When the Americans are gone, Iraq will be a puppet. In the beginning, they will be a puppet of the United States. But before too long they will be an Iranian puppet. Just by taking Iraq out of the equation, the Americans have made Iran into a regional power.
Iran, however, faces legitimacy problems. They are still a nation that is mostly excluded from the international community. And their regional power status is at issue with the Americans. Before too long, they will need to cement the gains that they have made, while avoiding becoming a proxy for Russian or Chinese interests. Too, they will need to inoculate themselves from the established regional military power in Israel. The Iranians are also walking a tightrope.
They need to assert themselves while also accommodating with the world community in order to achieve the greatest regional control possible. They see the possibility of rising from proxy status to become a legitimate player, and are reaching for that. So they have been pursuing nuclear energy generation. If they are able to set up nuclear electric generation internally it will immediately confirm their status as a legitimate power in the region. Once they are able to master the nuclear fuel cycle, they will be more able to pursue nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent weapons. Nuclear armed countries do not get attacked by other nuclear armed countries (Pakistan and India are a special case.). The brand of military adventurism that Israel seems to love would not be possible against a nuclear armed Iran.
So Iran wants to deter the United States while the US wants to keep Iran in line as a proxy state. The last thing it wants is a solidified regional player exercising control over our proxy in Iraq. If it does that then we will quickly see the dissolution of a great portion of our power. Which is what this whole regional standoff is about. And it’s a standoff because Iran already has a nuclear option that they can pursue.
That nuclear option is two-fold. They can double the price of oil in a week. All they have to do is sink a few ships in the Gulf of Hormuz. Maybe mess with the Saudi oil field via missile. Close up all oil out of Iraq. These things should be well within their capacities. There are also 150,000 troops in Iraq. And there are real questions about the security of the supply lines feeding them. Imagine the Pentagon trying to feed these troops via airlift with oil at $300-$400 a barrel (just to toss out a random plausible number).
So all of this is kabuki. The first question is whether the nutcases in the United States have been contained enough to ensure that an attack on Iran does not happen (and Israel is our proxy, so if they are the ones to attack then it means the same as if we did). It looks like that is the case. Although this is hard to know, especially because it is obvious that both Israel and the neo-cons know that a nuclear armed Iran is the death knell to their ambitions.
The other question is whether the Iranians want to solidify their gains against the incompetent Bush team or if they want to hold out for more. They know that the next president will come into the play with a lot more power than Bush currently holds. But they also know that the only negotiating tactic the neo-cons know is saber-rattling. And the Iranians also know that Bush has got a history. He’s started an ill-advised war before. Also, there just may not be any good deal that will come on the table for them to work with.
All this thinking about the Iranian situation has clarified an unrelated matter though. A nuclear power can walk all over a non-nuclear power. The non-nuclear power just has to eat it. Time and time again. If the nuclear power wants to humiliate the non-nuclear power then it can do so time and time again. The non-nuclear power’s gotta do some silly contorting to save face. Some times it will have to act like it agrees with it’s enemy. It will have to look spineless pretty often. It will also have to look stupid and incompetent much of the time. Simply cause the other side’s got nukes.
Remind you of something?
So what I wanna know is, why do we bringing knives to gun fights? What "nuclear option" do they got against the Democrats?
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