Agnostic

“The many men, so beautiful!
And they all dead did lie:
And a thousand thousand slimy things
Lived on; and so did I.”

The 2008 transition period is a pretty odd occasion. Antsy and anguished. Hopeful and afraid. ‘Tis the season of the tea leaves and card readers. In the end, we don’t know Obama, in the same way as we don’t know ourselves, and have forgotten how to effectively evaluate the world around us. How much has our folly cost us? Are the opportunities we see before us real or wishful chimeras? I imagine this moment in our national life stretched into an eternity. An interregnum. The Christmas/Apocalypse looming on the horizon. A month of endless waiting. What we need is an era of decision. Choices need to be made. Courses charted. Battles need to be won and lost. What we have is endless drift.

It seems obvious that Obama is not a “Third Way” politician like Clinton, even though that experience certainly informs the incoming Obama administration. Definitely he will have to manage a Democratic party that is really two parties (at least) in one. The current Democratic party is both a center left and center right party. Progressive and Blue Dog at the same time, the Democratic party is the classic circular firing squad. The ineffectual Democratic Congressional majority from 2006 on is classic proof of the divided nature of the party. We are talking fellow travelers here. But the fifth column is on the right this time, not the left. These are the Democrats that would be Republicans if the Republican party didn’t decide it wants to be the John Birch Society.

He will also have to deal with the John Birch Society…..Wait, forgive me, the Republican Party. The party who have used hate, intolerance, corruption, and incompetence to reduce themselves to a rump party dangerously close to becoming isolated to their regional strong points in the South. They still have just enough power to obstruct the new administration, if they can keep enough of their fellow travelers in the Democratic Party at least.

That the rump has lost most of its legislative muscle does not diminish the mighty wind they regularly generate. The vast right wing noise machine yet lives, even if it has to currently live on the scraps generated by an immaculate and careful politician like Obama. When they get something they can sink their teeth into, they are still a hurricane force on the American cultural landscape. Limbaugh and Hannity are neutered for the moment. Their genius is two-fold. During the Bush years it was in bullying. In opposition it lies in obstruction. They will have their victories yet.

The Bush administration had a reverse Midas Touch. Everything it touched was broken by them. Foreign policy, economic policy, the politicization of non-partisan governmental functioning, gross cronyism and illegality were the trademarks of the outgoing administration. And not all of these mines have exploded yet. The next year will see more horrible surprises left in the wake of the Bush administration.

We will have our work cut out for ourselves. Herculean effort will be needed to merely avert complete disaster. And even that may not be enough. This nation is in a triage situation. We need to limit the bleeding, avert the worst case scenarios, and in the midst of this chart a course towards a sustainable future. This much is obvious to all. Obama’s cabinet choices appear to all be made with an eye toward effective governance, which is a good thing. All the hand-wringing about how “progressive” he is or how “centrist” I think is a distraction. They are merely the dead end of the Southern Strategy. I don’t think the play here is what we are used to. The Neo-Conservative era is dead. It died finally with the rise of Obama and the death of Bear Stearns.

The rise of Obama is the cultural end of the culture wars. In case you didn’t notice, the liberals won it. Prop 8 and William Ayers was the last gasp of the Culture wars as we have known them. Of course, I have been wrong before, and I could be guilty of confirmation bias. If Ayers continues to be used by the right wing after March of next year then I am wrong.

The Bear Stearns bailout was the end of the economic underpinnings of the Southern Strategy. Once we started shoveling money at bankers every last economic argument the right uses was discredited. Gone by the wayside. As the saying goes, “There are no atheists or libertarians in foxholes.” Economic libertarianism was always a crock anyways.

I suppose all of this is the reason why I just want to wait and see. This eternal interregnum will end to, like all things. Only then will we see where we lie. There is an albatross around our necks. We, as a people, have sinned grievously. What this all means will have to wait for later. Maybe then we will know the significance of the moves being made now. But that is not important. At least not right now. Before the new era begins, the horrible contemplation of our situation makes the most sense to me. We are the Mariner. Alone. At sea. With the albatross around our neck.

Pie....Yum!

I'm Just Tryin' to Scare You

Nouriel Roubini: This is indeed a cardiac arrest for the shadow and non-shadow banking system and for the system of financing of the corporate sector. The shutdown of financing for the corporate system is particularly scary: solvent but illiquid corporations that cannot roll over their maturing debt may now face massive defaults due to this illiquidity. And if the financing of the corporate sectors shuts down and remains shut down the risk of an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression becomes highly likely.

Do Nothing

It's taken a while for me to come to this thought, because the economy is a ramshackle house of cards that is really about ready to implode. But the bailout ain't the answer. To me this looks like a massive dollar grab before the guilty walk out of the door. This ain't the answer to what ails us.

A Shark!

Just because.



And I'm an astronaut 'cause I can see the moon.

The View Through A Looking Glass

We are approaching the edge. The suburban land/paper/oil grand coalition of American politico/econo/social organization is on one side of the chasm. This is where we are now. This is the landscape that politics and culture must operate in at this moment.

The future is electronic, informational, energy will be renewable, clean, and more local. The future is dense, intelligent, energy-neutral. The future is electronic-based, not energy-land based. But we are not there yet. We are near the end, but still yet months or a year or two away from the real cliff edge. The bailouts going on now as we speak are the dying gasp of the old order, as Rent tries to lock itself into power in perpetuity.

The question is, can Obama be the bridge to the future, or is he destined to only be the last gasp of the old economic order? Does he represent the first start or the last gasp? Or both? The age we live in is a contradictory one. Massive forces are pulling in opposite directions. Maybe.

I am hopeful that Obama is the best we can do at this moment. He has played this about as well as could be done. If he weighed farther to the future, then he would not be on the stage. He has also shown a prescient knowledge of the calendar and in political position. His skill is to be on both the right and the left of his opposition, forcing his opponents into positions that lack a well-spring of growth. His are the politics of co-optation and aikido. And in the course of the calendar, his positions are realized. The debate moves to him. We have seen this time and time again. We have also seen that he keeps his cards close to himself. Everything he has done throughout the campaign has been part of a carefully drawn up long game. I have the sense that everything is going according to plan. He is playing chess, and so far has shown himself to be a master at setting up his pieces. So I am not ready to cast a verdict based on his moves to consolidate the Blue Dogs and the forces of suburbanization and militarization. There is quite possibly a larger chess game at issue that he is playing.

There is one wild card that is too often missed. The ground game. This is perhaps the future that Obama has already given us.

The question with this movement is the one that is faced by every movement. What happens to it after the election? Does it crystallize into organized action or does it fizzle away? This is the real deal. This is the ace in the hole. This is a trump card that has yet to be played. Because this is the mechanism by which Obama has gotten to where he is now. This is the horse he’s ridden throughout the whole game. Because the air war of ads and the pundit circuit is not friendly to Obama. The best he can hope for is to disarm it enough to allow the social networking to work. As long as he ain’t getting blasted on top, then he is able to organize down below.

The power of the many organized is mighty. And it’s not new. I’m going to give quite a large quote here, because this example is mighty instructive.

Thomas Frank, “What’s the Matter with Kansas?”

The push that started Kansas hurtling down the crevasse of reaction was provided by Operation Rescue, the national pro-life group famous for its aggressive tactics against abortion clinics. They called it the Summer of Mercy.; the plan was to commit acts of civil disobedience all across the city of Wichita in July 1991, just as the organization’s followers had done in Atlanta in 1988 and Los Angeles in 1990. Wichita was to be different, though. Here you had Tiller’s clinic situated among a population that is world-famous for its spiritual enthusiasm. The protesters meant to make this contradiction manifest—to force one aspect of the Kansas identity to clash with another—to set up a conflict so unresolvable that everyone in the state would eventually have to choose up sides and join in the fight.

What allowed Operation Rescue to succeed, and what made the summer of 1991 different from previous anti-abortion rallies, was the reaction of the city’s clinics, which voluntarily closed up for a week when the protests began. Although this disastrous strategy had been undertaken on the advice of the Wichita police, to certain elements of the pro-life movement it represented a bona-fide miracle. For once they had completely stopped what they called “the abortion industry” in its tracks. In July and August they descended on Wichita by the thousands, spreading out over the city, chaining themselves to fences, lying down beneath cars, filling the jails, and picketing the residences of abortion doctors and others they deemed to be complicit in the culture of death.

The summer’s climactic event was a mass meeting in the football stadium at Wichita State University. At first organizers expected seven thousand people; they reserved only half of the stadium. More than twenty-five thousand showed up. They filled the entire complex; they spilled over onto the end zones. Pat Robertson took to the podium and declared, “We will not rest until every baby…is safe in his mother’s womb”; the fundamentalist media critic Donald Wildmon lashed out against liberal bias in the news; the pro-life activist Joe Scheidler called for Wichita-style protests across the country; and Operation Rescue leaders phoned in speeches from jail. In one Spartacus-like moment, an event organizer asked those from out of town to stand up; according to press accounts, two-thirds of the audience did so. Then she called on Wichitans to stand, and the whole crowd got to its feet.

Lawrence Goodwyn, the historian of nineteenth-century Populism, proposes that “movement culture” is critical to mass protest: “The people need to ‘see themselves’ experimenting in democratic forms,” he has written. What Goodwyn no doubt had in mind were the Populists’ huge “educational” gatherings and their day-long parades through three Kansas towns, but the observation applies just as accurately to that great inverted-populist frolic in Wichita one hundred years later. This was where the Kansas conservative movement got an idea of its own strength; this was where it achieved critical mass. Other aspects of that summer may be hazy now, but every anti-abortion activist I talked to remembers this massive gathering with burning clarity. Mary Kay Culp, the Johnson County director of the anti-abortion group Kansans for Life (KFL), recalled how she and others from suburban Kansas City traveled by bus to the event. Bud Hentzen, a Wichita contractor who served at that time as a Sedgwick County commissioner, described the moment in the stadium as a kind of awakening. “My thought,” he said, was “bring on the vote.”

And bring it on they did. Tim Golba, a former president of Kansans for Life, recounted how KFL’s mailing list grew by ten thousand names in the six weeks after the rally. At anti-abortion gatherings Wichita conservative leaders signed up candidates for Republican precinct positions, “These people were laying down their bodies on the highway,” remembered Mark Gietzen, a Christian activist who was soon to become the chairman of the Sedgwick County GOP. “We said, ‘We admire you for your courage, for your conviction, but we’ve got something a lot smarter for you to do than lying on the highway.’” By August 1992, Gietzen asserted, “we had 87 percent of our people identified, firm, Operation Rescue-type pro-lifers as precinct committeemen and women.”

The parallels with 2008 are worth watching. There are two tests that I am watching. November 4th and whether the organization fades on the vine once that date passes. If Obama has a larger game in mind, that is the easiest place to look for the tell.

Three Choices

Source:

Quite frankly, I don't believe these numbers. There are three possibilities, or a combination thereof.

1. The American political system as it is currently constituted is built to bring politicians like George W. Bush to the presidency.
2. The American public really hates (loves) the media, with a fiery hate (love).
3. The polls are wrong.

There's lots of explanation behind each of these options, and a whole ton of subsets of these options.

In any case, the choice is a clear one between Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin. The American public will get the kind of government it deserves with this election.

Oil: Bubble Money

Gas prices have fallen $.50 in the last two weeks at the gas station I go to. Because the reserve currency of the world (the dollar) is pegged on the price of oil, "The dollar fell when oil rose, and now it is rising as oil falls." So when the money flooded into oil and other commodities after the start of the credit crisis last year, oil prices shot up. It shouldn't be surprising that speculators now contol 48% of the oil futures in world markets.

From one view (Which jibes with my take, but says it a whole lot better than I could):

Maybe it is where all the "liquidity" went when Bernanke pushed rates down to 2%. The spike up to $140 looked awfully steep - the sort of thing that occurs
with commodities as they top out (see corn, wheat, copper, and all the other
commodities that have now topped out).
The trend line supporting this spike
crosses near $115 now, so we are approaching critical support. If oil can hold
here, it has the possibility of racing up to test its high or set a new top
around $170. If it cannot maintain support, it heads back to its break-out point
around $85. There it will rest awhile before heading even lower as the global economy shrinks even more.
This new speculator data suggests there is a lot
of hot money in the system that is liable to panic, so there are somewhat better
odds oil will not hold support at $115.
Then where does the hot money go?
Probably out of the euro and other hot currencies, back into the dollar and safe
instruments like Treasuries. In other words, the hot money is going to panic
again about credit risk, which implies there are some more surprises in the
banking industry ready to be revealed.

There is a lot of money sloshing about the system now. The money that two years ago would be looking at CDOs and other mortgage backed securities had jumped into commodities index funds. With demand destruction evident in Europe now, the money sloshes again. Of course, this is only one leg of this three-legged stool. The sturdy second leg is composed of Demand destruction combined with the possibility of peak oil supply caps. The third leg is tinfoil hat land. (This includes the idea of Saudi Arabia starving the U.S. out of Iraq, in the same way as it flooded out the Iran-Iraq war with cheap oil. Notice the price drop from the start of the war in 1980 to its end in 1988 and the run-up in prices from 2003 on.)

Shock and Awe

“The entire human film was prerecorded. I will explain briefly how this is done. Take a simple virus illness like hepatitis. This illness has an incubation period of two weeks. So if I know when the virus is in (and I do because I put it there) I know how you will look two weeks from now: yellow.”

William S. Burroughs “The Beginning is Also the End”

I am not a good writer. I know that. This blog is really lame as far as blogs go. I understand this. But it’s okay. I had been toying with the idea for a blog for a while, but never really thought I had anything worth saying. And I don’t have the time, skills, or interest to devote to making a good blog. But still I have a blog. This blog. Why?

The thing that finally drove me into blogging were the censure votes against Pete Stark and MoveOn.org last year. I found (and still do) these censures to be ridiculous and inexplicable. They were instances of intentionally shooting yourself in the foot. I still don’t understand why they were done. It’s a puzzle to me. And that, in the end, is why I have this blog. Through fits and starts between work and family and every other distraction in the world I keep coming back to this one question.
I experimented with the idea of tracing the development of American politics through the rise of the Southern Strategy. So much of the kabuki of American politics is run through this prism. It’s definitely a big part of the answer. The Southern Strategy is the great answer of contemporary American culture and any answer to any political question will have to address its impact.

It is in this context that I have been thinking of Iran lately. There are many reasons why the Bush administration invaded Iraq. The only that I feel carries the most weight was an attempt to shift the grand strategic coalition. This is the Cheney neo-con/paleo-con vision realized.

Since World War II (with reinforcements and addendums along the way) the US has relied on proxies to retain its dominance of the region. Saudi Arabia managed the oil, Israel managed the military might, and all other regional powers were managed. Any regional powers that could not be managed were set in confrontation amongst each other. Much of the structure of this aspect of American hegemony was set into its determinative form under Nixon. (yet another reason why I keep returning to the influence he had.)

This arrangement was followed through the end of the cold war. American power peaked during the Clinton presidency. Russia’s power was at an ebb, and the world had entered into a unique period of American hegemony. The Bush/Cheney administration entered this period determined to solidify these gains and cement American dominance over the world. They would do this by realigning the Grand Strategic Coalition that was initially established by FDR.

The goal in attacking Iraq was to get in, take over, establish a strong man that the Americans could control, and then get out. The neo-cons had no doubts in American imperial power. They had seen the ways to dominate and control Washington DC. They were sure that if they could control the pinnacle of power in the world fairly easily then they could control the rest of the world easily.

Shock and Awe was not just a branding device for the war in Iraq. They really believed in it. It was as close to a religion as they had. It was what had got them to control the greatest power in the world. For the tactics of Shock and Awe is the late 20th early 21st century tactical application of the Southern Strategy. And there is great evidence that the tactics of Shock and Awe were the means by which the Republican party was taken over from within by the Neo-conservatives in the 70s and 80s. In short, this was their bread and butter.

“If a man makes a certain amouint of money by certain means he will go on making more money by the same means and so forth. Human activities are drearily predictable. It should be obvious that what you call ‘reality’ is a function of these precisely predictable because prerecorded human activities.”
William S. Burroughs “The Beginning is Also the End

They were sure that it would work. They would take over Iraq, secure its oil for American oil companies, and then walk away. Iran was to be the next step. It too would get the treatment once the business was set up in Iraq. This project would ensure American dominance of the world throughout the completion of the era of oil dominance.

To spell things out, prior to the Bush/Cheney administration, America had Saudi Arabia in its oil column. Iraq and Iran were set against each other, but their oil was underutilized and out of effective American control. Russia and China were watching and slowly building their power. The Neo-con goal was to pull Iraq into the orbit of American hegemony in a role similar to Saudi Arabia, with Israel as the local police force keeping the region in line. Then they would turn their greedy eyes to Iran and give them the same treatment as Iraq.

Securing Iraq and Iran on the American side of the ledger would give the US veto power over the world in regards to energy. It was a play for economic monopolistic power. And that is always what power is about in the end. The marbles in this game are and have always been about the economic organization of contol.

“Hiroshima. 1945. August 6th. 16 minutes past 8 am. Who really gave that order? Answer: Control. The ugly American. The instrument of Contol. Question: If Control’s control is absolute why does control need to control? Answer: Control needs time. Question: Is Control controlled by its need to control? Answer: Yes. Why does Control need humans, as you call them? Wait. Wait. Time. A landing field. Death needs time like a junky needs junk. And what does Death need time for? The answer is so simple. Death needs time for what it kills to grow in, for Ah Pook’s sake.”
William S. Burroughs, “Ah Pook the Destroyer”

Russia and China would have to bow before our might. Controlling the oil would give us a permanent economic advantage over any and every rival. Truly the dream was for the permanent Pax Americana. Combined with the rejiggering of American polical reality, it would be the Pax Neo-Conia. Power and riches for friends and their corporate enablers. What could go wrong?

In Iraq everything went wrong. The military performed its part admirably. Iraq was conquered. After that everything was mismanaged. From the start of looting it became clear that the neo-cons skills at browbeating in American politics would not translate to governing. The neo-cons can’t actually run anything. They are terrible at managing. The nuclear option is a great way to break stuff (like the Democrats, the MSM, or another country), but not at all effective in getting things to work.

And that was the problem with their attempt at Grand Strategy. Their toolkit was empty. All they had was a hammer. Which they are now attempting to use against Iran. Fast forward 5 years into their mess and you see the failure more completely.

First, and most important, is the fact that they never got control over the oil. Since the day they took office oil has quadrupled in prices. They never were able to open the spigots. This is the first and most fundamental blunder. The exurbanization that is enabled by low oil prices is the key to the contemporary Republican coalition. The self-identified “libertarian” wing dependent on the defense and construction industries is in the process of reevaluating their allegiances. This can be seen most clearly in the Mountain West, traditional bastions of Republican support that are most definitely in play during the 2008 cycle.

High oil prices has also fueled the reemergence of Russia on the world stage. And they are making the most of their position. Europe now has extensive dependencies on Russian oil and natural gas. They are aligning themselves with Iran to get their own major oil sources locked up. Russia’s goal seems to be to lock Europe and China into dependence on Russian aligned energy.

China is another player that has risen due to Bush/Cheney incompetence. The inability to either lock down oil production in Iraq or hand the country off to a local strongman has made the Americans borrow on a scale not previously seen. China has profited from an accelerating process of labor arbitrage that has fed China’s ability to grow its economy. The cycle is that the Americans buy cheap Chinese manufactured goods using borrowed money (see personal/governmental debt figures) which the Chinese lend to our government so it can fight the war in Iraq while enacting tax cuts.

China has built itself up as a lending and manufacturing powerhouse. This is the position that the United States found itself in a century ago. That position is the ultimate position of economic power, because it opens all sorts of policy options that are not open to buyers and borrowers.

China is working to escape from the noose that Russia is preparing by also cultivating Iran, along with other energy suppliers in Africa and South America. They are also very tied up economically with the United States and are working to quietly position themselves for a weakened US.

Iran too has gained quite a bit from the invasion of Iraq. First and foremost, the Americans have removed the main competing power in the area and replaced it with what will eventually be a vassal state. When the Americans are gone, Iraq will be a puppet. In the beginning, they will be a puppet of the United States. But before too long they will be an Iranian puppet. Just by taking Iraq out of the equation, the Americans have made Iran into a regional power.

Iran, however, faces legitimacy problems. They are still a nation that is mostly excluded from the international community. And their regional power status is at issue with the Americans. Before too long, they will need to cement the gains that they have made, while avoiding becoming a proxy for Russian or Chinese interests. Too, they will need to inoculate themselves from the established regional military power in Israel. The Iranians are also walking a tightrope.

They need to assert themselves while also accommodating with the world community in order to achieve the greatest regional control possible. They see the possibility of rising from proxy status to become a legitimate player, and are reaching for that. So they have been pursuing nuclear energy generation. If they are able to set up nuclear electric generation internally it will immediately confirm their status as a legitimate power in the region. Once they are able to master the nuclear fuel cycle, they will be more able to pursue nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent weapons. Nuclear armed countries do not get attacked by other nuclear armed countries (Pakistan and India are a special case.). The brand of military adventurism that Israel seems to love would not be possible against a nuclear armed Iran.

So Iran wants to deter the United States while the US wants to keep Iran in line as a proxy state. The last thing it wants is a solidified regional player exercising control over our proxy in Iraq. If it does that then we will quickly see the dissolution of a great portion of our power. Which is what this whole regional standoff is about. And it’s a standoff because Iran already has a nuclear option that they can pursue.

That nuclear option is two-fold. They can double the price of oil in a week. All they have to do is sink a few ships in the Gulf of Hormuz. Maybe mess with the Saudi oil field via missile. Close up all oil out of Iraq. These things should be well within their capacities. There are also 150,000 troops in Iraq. And there are real questions about the security of the supply lines feeding them. Imagine the Pentagon trying to feed these troops via airlift with oil at $300-$400 a barrel (just to toss out a random plausible number).

So all of this is kabuki. The first question is whether the nutcases in the United States have been contained enough to ensure that an attack on Iran does not happen (and Israel is our proxy, so if they are the ones to attack then it means the same as if we did). It looks like that is the case. Although this is hard to know, especially because it is obvious that both Israel and the neo-cons know that a nuclear armed Iran is the death knell to their ambitions.

The other question is whether the Iranians want to solidify their gains against the incompetent Bush team or if they want to hold out for more. They know that the next president will come into the play with a lot more power than Bush currently holds. But they also know that the only negotiating tactic the neo-cons know is saber-rattling. And the Iranians also know that Bush has got a history. He’s started an ill-advised war before. Also, there just may not be any good deal that will come on the table for them to work with.

All this thinking about the Iranian situation has clarified an unrelated matter though. A nuclear power can walk all over a non-nuclear power. The non-nuclear power just has to eat it. Time and time again. If the nuclear power wants to humiliate the non-nuclear power then it can do so time and time again. The non-nuclear power’s gotta do some silly contorting to save face. Some times it will have to act like it agrees with it’s enemy. It will have to look spineless pretty often. It will also have to look stupid and incompetent much of the time. Simply cause the other side’s got nukes.

Remind you of something?

So what I wanna know is, why do we bringing knives to gun fights? What "nuclear option" do they got against the Democrats?

A better cover

Quickie job. This would make a better cover as far as I can see. If this was supposed to be satire, then at least this would have some kind of satire value.

Seriously, what the @@^$&^) do the Tampa Bay Rays got against the RBI? I mean, really? I wanna know. Dammit, I like that team! WTF are they doing ^*#*($^ with that? huh?!?!??! Teh stupid, it burns. I hate getting all riled up over the between inning entertainment at Tropicana Field, but I am sick and tired of being dumb for dumb's sake. I mean, really? [sputtering incoherently]

FISA and My Tinfoil Hat

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121388542478988553.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

The money shot: "Critical to sealing the deal was a compromise that would grant conditional immunity to telecommunications companies for assistance they provided from September 2001 through January 2007."

The immunity is not a bug but a feature. I have trouble really believing that Telecom campaign donations is enough pork for this. Hopefully one day I will have a good reason. Until that time, I guess my tinfoil hat is my only recourse.

Best Thread EVAH

The birth of a new meme:

http://lefarkins.blogspot.com/2008/06/thanks-to-911-shes-outraged-by.html

Foreclosures

Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/MapSearch/FreeSearch.aspx?a=b&

I'll get this map stuff better as I do it more.

More Maps

First there was gas prices, now here are Non-prime mortgage loan maps (still looking for something better than on the county level).

Source: Interactive Maps

Pokin' Around

http://www.newjerseygasprices.com/map_gas_prices.aspx?z=0&lat=39.351563&long=-94.750000&ft=A&tl=48

All your delegate are belong to us

Next Tuesday can't come soon enough.

In Memoriam

Fittingly enough, my ipod died on Memorial Day. Luckily it wasn't a year since I bought the damn thing. $32 bucks for shipping to repair it....Darg. Just another reminder of how much I hate the radio.

Now I can't listen to songs like this, except at home when the kids are buggin' me:

Nixon Is My Windmill Part 1

Jason, it looks like you may be right. McCain may in fact win in November. Up until Pennsylvania, I have been thinking that it is going to be an Obama landslide. And it may still end up that way. In a normal year it would be another Reagan-Mondale election, but this time with the roles reversed. All of the pieces are in place. But my analysis is obviously lacking.

Pennsylvania came in with a 9 point win for Clinton, which is within expectations for the primary. The margin looked like it would be a 6-9% win for her. If it was 5% or lower, then Obama would have won the expectations game. Since it has been reported as double digits, and the media doesn’t do corrections, this makes Hillary the winner of the expectations game. It doesn’t do anything to the math, and the math will eventually doom the Clinton campaign. But not before Obama is crippled going into the election.

I have not read events correctly. Bittergate should have played to Obama but it was a wash. The events last week leading up to the Pennsylvania primary have troubled me. The ABC debate last week was so horrible that I was sure there would be a bounce from it.(add from Martin)

But instead of the bounce for Obama, it actually played as a bounce for Clinton. There is no other way to read the results that makes sense. The Southern Strategy is alive and well. Exit polling gave her a five point win. She won by 10. The campaigns can’t come out and say it, so I will. This discrepancy between what people told pollsters and what they voted points to hidden racism. People voted for Clinton, but told others that they had voted for Obama.

The one strength that I had come to rely on with Obama was that he seemed to have a grip on how to deal with smear. Dumb as rocks attacks just don’t work on him. I thought his high-road responses to the Wright sermons and Bittergate were the answer to the Southern Strategy. Obviously I am wrong.

Now I gotta clarify a bit. Three weeks ago she was polling over 20% better than Obama in PA. And she burned up a lot of capital along the way. Her negatives rose, and she took a dive in national polling. And what she got for it was a stop to the bleeding in Pennsylvania.

For the general election we can rely on the fact that Obama is an excellent campaigner, McCain isn’t, and a national election won’t allow for such a focused burn on one state. Obama brings a lot of states into play, and the Republicans can’t defend them all while going on the offensive. The national math still strongly favors Obama in the general.

But that doesn’t excuse my miscall of PA. I do not have a good read. It’s time to go back to the drawing board. If I want to understand what is happening here I gotta go back to the basics on this one. Retrace steps. Find out what went wrong in my analysis.

Politics is simply the game of Power. Gaining control, and all it represents, is the only goal of politics. The rules of this game vary depending on the specific circumstances of the individual politician. This is because politics is an ever-changing mix of personal control and of delegated responsibility. The delegated responsibility is due to the fact that politicians are merely proxies for established interests. Every political battle is a proxy fight. In this regard then the goals of the individual politician and the goals of the role can either be in variance or in accord with each other.

When the goals of the individual politician are in variance with the goals of the politician’s role political capital must be spent. This can be seen in the 2008 presidential election and Hillary Clinton’s embrace of the Republican right wing. The institutional goals of a Democratic nominee for president demand that she has already lost and must fade away for the good of the party. That is what losing candidates have to do. It is an institutional goal in the Democratic party for their candidates to act in this way. Clinton, however, is not doing that. Instead, she is embracing her individual goal of achieving the role of president, or the lesser goal of denying that role to Obama. In order to do this she is spending vast amounts of accumulated political capital.

Whether she is a failed proxy will be determined in November. Already, we can tell that she is not a successful proxy. She will not be the Democratic nominee. There is no mathematical way for that to happen. And there is no plausible non-mathematical route to the nomination for her at this point.

But she can yet be a successful proxy, in that she can kneecap Obama enough so that he loses in the general to McCain. For she represents the establishment of the Democratic party. Obama represents a potential new fundraising model for the Democratic party. If he wins, then many current power brokers in the Democratic party lose their hold on the money. Obama represents, at least partially in the area of fundraising, the internet Kossaks at the gate.

As Pennsylvania is showing, Obama faces the three-headed hydra of Clinton, McCain, and the MSM, whose interests lay against him. I had thought that I understood the game that was being played. But the Pennsylvania primary is confusing me. The bump for Obama that I expected has not materialized in the polling and I want to know why.

My analysis is incomplete at best, dead wrong at worst. There is more. It’s a time for first principles and the context that only history brings. And, as with everything else rotten in the state of American politics, it all revolves around Nixon. In particular, the combination of Straussian elitism, the abandonment of Breton Woods, and the Southern Strategy that he brought to the table.

If the practice of politics is the Sausage Works then policy is the Sausage. There is a reason why politicians, Democrats and Republicans alike, almost always make Neo-Conservative sausage these days. This is Nixon’s doing. Reagan mainstreamed Neo-Conservatism, and Bush 43 cemented Neo-Conservatism as the new middle, but the structure rests on Nixon.

Prior to the Neo-Conservative Era, we were living in the Liberal Era. The fundamental core of the New Deal was demand spreading. “Demand spreading means, all other things being equal, it is better that more people have some money, than some people having more money. Social Security is based on this principle as is the liberal theory of government starting with FDR. FDR ran both as Governor of New York and for the Presidency under the theory that demand was misallocated, and that people outside of the centers of economic activity needed to be able to afford goods. Universalization of electricity and phone service were undertaken under this theory, as were the various subsidy programs.”

FDR’s greatness as the savior of capitalism and the American Way rests on the compact that the New Deal represented. The strength of the New Deal lies in the fact that the Neo-Conservative Era was never able to dismantle the pillars of it. The modern state was born with FDR, and all that Nixon was able to do was behead it. This will become clear.

This is gonna be kinda sprawling all over. We’ve got the global economic system, the rise of Freak Show politics, the marriage of the Dixiecrats and John Birchers with the libertarians, and Straussian evil to consider. Now that signs are pointing to an end of the Neo-Conservative era, maybe I can start to get some ideas about what comes next. This is gonna take time and multiple posts.

I am aware that conducting my analysis with the central thesis being that Richard Nixon was evil and the cause of all of our problems may seem over the top. Surely there are better targets? People a bit more recent? People a bit more culpable? Nope. That’s my thesis and I’m sticking to it. Nixon is my windmill, and I’ll tilt any damn way I please, thank you very much.

Questions for Eddie

As you must already be aware, I'm more of a lover than a writer. This is my fourth attempt to write this thing. At three I was thinking that was the charm. Now the days pass and I age before my own eyes. I am wiser now than I was the last three times, and I know that I also will not post this for nobody to read.

Knowing this about myself, you might be justified in asking why I am even trying to start posting to an unknown blog. In answer, there are several reasons, all good enough individually. Together, these reasons make a massive conspiracy that cannot be denied. The reasons are these:
1. Work is boring.
2. I am listening to Ghostface Killah, and ghosts are famed the world over for their amazing literary talents.
3. If the wackos in the bomb shelters are right, the world will end in January, and I'll never get a chance to write again.
4. It'd be nice to actually finish something I start for once.
5. In three days it will be forever since I last wrote.
6 Hummer. (old joke, and it is not even # 8 on the list. I know.)
7. I had a dream last night of flying a burrito to the moon, and that naturally made me think of burritos. Since I do not actually have any burritos, this was the best that I could think of.

As you can see, there is a juggernaut of reasons why this time I might actually post.

So I’m calling you out. You know who you are. The staff here at Tiger Beat are getting desperate. Consider this the Tiger Beat interview you never knew.

1. The Cult O' Jon has the motto, "One Near You!" Are there franchise opportunities?
2. Much has been made of squirrels in your holy life, could you tell us the full story?
3. Our readership really likes the name Corey. Would you ever consider changing your name?
4. Could you give any advice for kids on understanding the Jonhead?
5. How do you feel about crackers in the sheets? Does it matter if they are Ritz or saltines?
6. What devotional music is recommended/demanded by the Cult?
7. Do you have any stories from childhood you can tell us?
8. Hummer (There. Now the joke is in its proper place. Are you laughing yet………How about now?)
9. Which is more religiously pure, creamy or crunchy peanut butter?
10. What are your turn ons and turn offs? [ed. That question was for the Playmate interview later]
11. What are proper modes of worship in the Cult O' Jon, "One Near You!"?
12. Could you pass a “Hi howdy do?” to Mrs. Cult O’ Jon and the wee ones?
13. Many people don't know what the Squid Doctrine is, and the part it plays in Jonism. Could you explain a little for us?
14. What do you think of hot girls and motorbikes?
15. What’s the going rate for a cheap scribe these days? Is the post filled?
17. Our readers really want to know who this Vald guy is. What could you tell us about him? Does he have a cult? If so, is it better than yours?
19. Telly Sevalis anyone?
20. What forms of cudgery are currently recognized by Jonists?
21. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah [What? Somebody’s actually reading this thing? Hoodathunkit?]
22. What is the hierarchy of your cult? Who and what terms should our readers know about?
23. Why are the stealth bombers keeping track of everything I do?
24. Clown control to Major Tom.
25. The Cult O' Jon doesn't have chapters in many cities. How can our readers worship appropriately when they don't have churchly officers in their locality?
26. A cult is nothing without prophecies. What can we expect in the future? Are there going to be end times, and if so, what will they be like? Will there be hoverbikes soon? And will mullets ever come back in style?
27. Why New England? Why Trenton, Il?
28. Your cult seems to be entirely formed of neer-do-wells and malcontents who can never complete a thing they set out to do. Is there some sort of commandment in the Cult prescribing laziness?
29. Why is a raven like a writing-desk?
30. Can you tell our celebrity starved children about Chippy, the squirrel who tragically gnawed off both his front paws?
31. Heathens like to claim that you just made up the Cult in college. They claim that you were in a comparative religion class and, while studying Janism, decided that if Jane could have a religion you could too. By this, I mean to ask, what do you like on your hot dog?
32. Fine men in fine shoes wax nostalgic about their youth in high-monied suburbs. They wink knowingly at the maid, wondering what color panties she's wearing under that skirt, and how much she'd need before she'd go down on them. This time the stars glimmered, as a comet passed over the city lights. Too late, they never looked, and she was gone with the tray in a moment, leaving them in their dimming vision.
33. How does one become ordained in the Cult? And do priests get free favors from comely ladies?
34. This number has decided it is not a number, it is free verse instead.

So what is it gonna be? You gonna step on out or is it whack-a-mole? Huh? Yeah, that’s right.

Random

Why Iraq is, and always has been, unwinnable:

In private life, an adult who keeps beating down on a five year old – even such a one as originally attacked him with a knife – will be perceived as
committing a crime; therefore he will lose the support of bystanders and end up by being arrested, tried and convicted.

He who fights against the weak – and the rag-tag Iraqi militias are very weak indeed – and loses, loses. He who fights against the weak and wins also loses. To kill an opponent who is much weaker than yourself is unnecessary and therefore cruel; to let that opponent kill you is unnecessary and therefore foolish.

Can someone say Minski moment?

For years we printed heedless billions of dollars, gave them out virtually for free, and created hundred percent annual inflation in the housing markets. Does anyone doubt this? Our government and central bank and major financial institutions intentionally pursued a policy of hyperinflation in a single sector of the economy, and even as they offered increasingly exorbitant loans to increasingly uncreditworthy rubes, they reassured themselves that it was "the market"--invisible, ineffible, inerrant--that was causing a shoddy three-bedroom in a second-rate subdivision off a highway somewhere in Maryland to catapult from $250,000 to $350,000 to $600,000 in resale value over the course of forty months or so.

And then we come to the parlor game:

It is an interesting and somewhat macabre parlor game to play at a large gathering of one’s acquaintances: to speculate who in a showdown would go Nazi. By now, I think I know. I have gone through the experience many times–in Germany, in Austria, and in France. I have come to know the types: the born Nazis, the Nazis whom democracy itself has created, the certain-to-be fellow-travelers. And I also know those who never, under any conceivable circumstances, would become Nazis.